Cycle Peak F2: 6 Meters Comes Alive

That's what I saw on my screen mid-morning October 31. It was the first wide-scale European opening of the fall F2 season. I expected it earlier in the month but you take what you can get. There have been more since. Those east and south of us saw better openings that we did.

I was anticipating openings like this when I wrote my 6 meter season recap article a few weeks ago. Although there is no good reason to regret publishing it, a follow up is certainly due. First, let's step back and see why I was premature in calling it a wrap for the season. 

Propagation

I've always expected north-south TEP propagation around the equinox. I knew this was not quite right since the fall season always seemed to peak after the astronomical equinox, often by many weeks. My understanding was incorrect. That led me to do a literature search, and this 2000 paper by K6MIO/KH6, kindly hosted by the UK Six Meter Group. It is well worth spending an hour or two digesting its insights.

On the right is Figure 4 from the paper. There are multiple factors that lead to a high F2 MUF that peaks in October and November, and close to the spring equinox. Read the paper for an explanation.

That isn't the only insight from the paper. Another is that some solar flares can increase the MUF rather than attenuate signals. The solar flux index is not always a good proxy for predicting propagation. But you won't know which will be the case until it happens. 

This happened on October 10 following an X flare, creating propagation that made the spectrogram above look anemic. I had a few friends with me in the shack after we abandoned the first attempt to raise the repaired 20 meter yagi. We were all amazed at what we saw. 6 meters seemed to be open everywhere. After they left I monitored for new countries. VK was the most interesting to me. That's a difficult path from here and VK4 has is the most likely since it is on the northeast corner of the continent. Unfortunately the opening to VK4 didn't last long enough for a QSO so I still need Australia on 6.

The ones that got away

In addition to VK, others heard but not worked include 5Z, VU, 4S, ET and more. You can't be everywhere and work everybody. It's disappointing, yet the failures challenge me to do better, by improving my skills and my station. I hope to pick up some of those missed in future openings.

I don't know whether it's to punish or motivate myself that I clip screenshots of the ones that get away. One of those is shown on the right. Actually I do know: it's motivation! It's great to see calls like these on the screen for a few months every solar cycle.

The other day I missed the best part of an opening to ET3AA on 50.323 MHz (the intercontinental FT8 channel). I heard him but he was weak and, according to PSK Reporter, he wasn't copying me. I notified my buddies and went off to do other things, including opening up a prop pitch motor a friend brought over that morning. When we stepped into the shack a little later, ET3AA was much stronger and emails were found that announced my friends' success working him. But I never did even though I received a flag from him at +6 db. Signals were falling off and the pile up was fierce.

I make a note of the ones I miss, especially noting the time of day. Openings on long DX paths can be quite brief, and you want to be there when it happens. I try to monitor at the same time the next day since propagation can last two or more days in a row. Sometimes I find them again and have another shot at working them.

The ones that didn't get away

It's almost become a joke among our small local group of 6 meter DXers that VK9DX is often heard in the early evening, possibly accompanied by a ZL or two. I struggled in the past to work either. Occasionally we'll hear other south Pacific stations, but there has been nothing new for me

Most in my local group have also worked both VK9 and ZL. Despite the regularity of their appearance, propagation is usually marginal and that still makes it a challenge. It's similar in a way to sunrise openings on the low bands -- 160, 80, 40 -- when you know the band will open to Asia but making QSOs is difficult. 

Towards the northwest, we've had two excellent openings to KL7 (Alaska). I didn't need it but some of my friends did. I am disappointed that we've only had one marginal opening to Japan and nothing else from east Asia. You had to be further south or west to work them. I keep hoping.

I increased my worked DXCC count to 143 (129 confirmed on LoTW). My modest (extravagant?) objective of 10 new ones this year remains a challenge, but one that is closer than it was in my earlier summary.

Stick with FT8, or not

Digital modes are very productive on marginal and brief DX openings. I migrated to FT8 on 6 meters, reluctantly I'll admit, since it is so effective on sporadic E openings. With longer and stronger F2 openings, are digital modes justified? Certainly there's far more activity on FT8 than on CW or SSB during these 6 meter openings, but that may be nothing more than an extension of the mode preferences seen on the HF bands.

I've recently enjoyed working Europeans on SSB and CW. However, I can "chat" on HF any time, so operating those modes is more novelty than a real attraction for me. 

When it comes to chasing the difficult DX, FT8 remains my mode of choice. It is the most effective since the longer and rarer DX paths are brief and marginal. Openings to Europe and South America are longer and stronger with F2, so those with a digital prejudice also have DX to enjoy at the moment.

What more can we expect

There is a time limit for working the exotic DX: the end of this solar maximum. This fall and next spring may comprise the best this solar cycle has to offer. Reliable predictions fall off beyond that, even though propagation should be good throughout 2025 regardless of the exact time of the peak. We should get a boost next spring and summer from sporadic E links to tropical and TEP F2 paths.

I have a few advantages now that I didn't have during the wild solar cycle that peaked in 1989-1990. My station is better, most countries have 6 meter privileges, DX spotting networks have gone global and (very important) I've retired. Despite being retired my schedule remains busy. The major difference is that my schedule is flexible, which I use to my advantage; it doesn't matter whether I do chores at 9 AM or 2 PM, while openings can't be rescheduled.

We should enjoy the propagation for as long as it lasts. It won't be long before we listen to a dead band and can only reminisce about the spectacular DX at solar maximum. We can also tell each other stories about the ones that got away. As for 2024, conditions are likely to abate during the winter months. That won't be the case for those in more favoured parts of the world. 

Have fun chasing DX on the magic band, wherever your QTH may be.