Did FT8 Save Amateur Radio?

It was with some surprise that an article I wrote a few months ago went "viral". Well, viral as far as it can be within a limited population of hams. It has been the most popularly viewed article in the recent history of this blog. 

Digital modes court a range of emotional responses from hams that have been licensed for a long time. Newer hams just shrug and carry on. Digital is undeniably popular. Many of the public comments and private feedback to my article seem to have missed the point. I was drawing attention to the way the world is, not the way any of us might wish it to be. So, yes, digital has won. You don't have to like it.

At the risk of being seen as taking advantage of the controversy I will revisit it for a particular reason. It isn't for the financial reward since I get none from the blog. That reason comes from a throwaway comment made by a friend when we spoke recently. That's the source for the title of this article. We laughed it off, but I kept coming back to the question over the following days. 

It's worthwhile to flesh out the arguments pro and con. I might as well since I am unable to get any tower work done due to weeks of poor weather. The above photo was taken this morning. I envy those of you that don't experience winter snowstorms. Warm weather is on the way so technical articles will follow as I start into my long list of tower and antenna projects.

First, what if there were no FT8? What would have been the implications on licensee numbers and on-air activity? There is no way to know for certain. Instead we have to look at the evidence that exists, circumstantial though it may be.

Let's review a few facts, not all of which have hard data attached. I am not willing to invest the time to do extensive research for a brief article like this. Hopefully there are no significant errors:

• There are more hams in the world than ever before. It is certainly higher in Canada, the US and many Asian countries other than Japan, growing at rates faster than the total population. It may also be true in Europe, though not so much elsewhere.
• Towers for effective HF communication are being eschewed by new and young hams in developed countries for a variety of personal and societal reasons. That was not true decades ago. They prefer simple antennas, portable operation (e.g. POTA) or may avoid HF entirely.
• Few new licensees know CW and only a fraction of them learn or are planning learn. Yet phone and conversational digital modes can be difficult for those with small stations. Like long time hams, there is more interest in making contacts, DX or otherwise, than having conversations. Conversations take place off-air, even among hams.
• VHF/UHF FM is the gateway for many new hams, for local communication, public service and emergency preparedness. Many of them let their licenses lapse. A few of those that stay migrate to HF. 

It is a commonly held belief by many older hams that if there were no digital modes that new hams would be active on (what they like to call) "human modes." That is, where a computer is not an active component of the QSO. This mainly is meant to mean CW and SSB, although some will include RTTY and other computer encoded/decoded modes that permit conversations or data communication.

Is that true? We can only speculate since there is no way to do an experiment. Take a look at the waterfall spectrograms shown in that earlier article that caused such a fuss. Do you believe all those FT8 signals would transfer to CW and SSB if we auto-magically and retrospectively eliminate digital? In my frank opinion, no, that would not have happened.

There are few conversations taking place on HF. Most are "599" DX QSOs or POTA activations. Those that are actual conversations are between hams of long acquaintance who have a regular schedule or participate in so-called nets. If we restrict our focus to CW there are even fewer conversations, and those are typically not between or with new and young hams.

CW won't die but it will become a niche mode. SSB will continue since it is easy. Few new hams that are solely on FM will stick around, or will find their niche there and stay there.

Digital modes, FT8 in particular, are undeniably popular. New hams with small stations can work a lot of DX on HF, and they do! They really enjoy it and have been bitten hard by the DXing bug despite the naysayers. It doesn't interest me as a contesting mode though some promote it as such.

That said, is there an attraction for a digital-exclusive HF operator to spend more time on SSB and to learn CW? The answer is yes. Many are learning CW to improve their POTA results, mix it up in the pile ups and to become more versatile contesters. It has been said (and I agree) that CW is an ideal contesting mode.

Of course, many of those using digital on HF are unlikely to ever learn CW and they are discouraged by attempts to DX with SSB from their small stations. We are well below replacement numbers on CW, so its use will decline as elderly hams depart. It has had a wonderful 100 year run but now its time has passed. SSB will continue as a DX and contest mode and for some conversation. FT8 will likely be a mainstay for general operating and DXing on HF for many years to come. However, we can't reliably predict far into the future. Time will tell.

I've droned on for longer than I intended. But it's relevant to the original question: did FT8 save amateur radio?

If we restrict ourselves to HF, I am leaning towards yes. I'm not convinced but I am persuaded. Had there been no FT8 (by far the most popular digital mode on HF and VHF) those hams currently active on FT8 would not be on CW or SSB. The spectrogram of a CW band segment like that in the earlier article would likely look very similar.

That's not the end of the story since FT8 does more than just increase activity at 7074, 14074 and the other FT8 watering holes. Once these hams get hooked on HF, DX or POTA, their ambitions grow. Many hams new to CW and SSB have migrated after being almost exclusively on FT8. SSB first, of course, yet many are learning CW. Why? What incentive do they see?

The answers are various, with no one overriding reason. The following are ones I've personally heard from newer no-code hams. Keep in mind that these observations do not comprise a statistically valid sample:

• The challenge of learning and becoming proficient at the code
• Improve results in radiosport activities: POTA, SOTA, DXCC and contests
• The high rate potential in competitive contesting
• Relatively simple home brew CW equipment for the technically oriented

Communication isn't in the list since that isn't the attraction in 2026. It seems to only attract a minority of new hams. Again, it isn't about what ought to happen (however you may feel about it) but what is happening.

There is a story in the current (April-May 2026) issue of the National Contest Journal about one relatively young ham, WM6Y, who took the CW challenge after spending time on FT8. You have to be an ARRL member to read the article so I will quote a few sentences:

"Do not dismiss digital modes. They can be a gateway, not a replacement. Sometimes the path to CW does not start with a key. Sometimes it starts with a computer screen — it did for me. FT8 brought me back to amateur radio. It motivated me to upgrade my license. It led me to portable operations and ultimately to CW. Without FT8, I might never have returned to the hobby at all."

In his case the activities were POTA and contesting. That agrees with my experience talking to newer hams, as I mentioned above.

Digital isn't so bad, so cheer up. These modes can contribute a great deal to the future health of the hobby, whether or not hams decide to later migrate to CW and SSB. I regularly use FT8 on 6 meters and a few other cases, despite initial reticence. I guess you could say I took the opposite migration path: from CW to digital. 

The future is potentially bright for our beloved hobby, and digital may be an important reason why.